Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 45.335567 53.494093 62.462914 73.022124 85.079855 98.384849 114.141438
2024-10-27 30.923815 41.089780 53.399331 69.265793 89.024269 112.658211 142.888215
2024-11-03 25.178399 36.608869 51.484874 71.965592 99.087400 133.393813 179.629134
2024-11-10 21.711397 34.035435 51.057676 75.776127 110.146262 155.558099 219.267260
2024-11-17 18.959860 31.794288 50.480506 78.904265 120.114353 176.607177 258.563870
2024-11-24 16.105871 28.823534 48.295110 79.234965 125.866956 191.986673 290.868484
2024-12-01 13.258016 25.325169 44.745848 76.949690 127.336372 201.115454 314.661380
2024-12-08 11.474298 23.255576 43.086358 77.238736 132.454552 215.591628 346.731600
2024-12-15 10.143359 21.735610 42.080894 78.360676 138.791177 232.095932 382.553162
2024-12-22 7.958524 18.244986 37.226655 72.499456 133.339593 230.054573 390.013643
2024-12-29 7.203243 17.387932 36.908333 74.317186 140.528282 248.052481 429.196928
2025-01-05 6.212672 15.869608 35.157013 73.363296 142.868402 258.315180 456.603683
2025-01-12 6.066576 16.273112 37.390578 80.412395 160.504330 296.059731 532.647543
2025-01-19 4.783140 13.881648 33.795045 76.194284 158.012100 300.562936 555.544797
2025-01-26 4.326092 13.330015 33.886364 79.110083 168.705105 328.129325 618.387854
2025-02-02 4.015606 13.072665 34.559335 83.240814 181.974239 360.963967 691.961328
2025-02-09 3.685280 12.684508 34.871951 86.631015 194.057923 392.389951 764.757592
2025-02-16 3.210226 11.775121 33.830600 86.989330 200.179835 413.385869 820.374417
2025-02-23 2.656333 10.478015 31.633248 84.512772 200.334451 423.344170 856.808963
2025-03-02 2.319657 9.752536 30.730039 84.826057 206.185583 444.222857 913.949927
2025-03-09 2.065585 9.223855 30.245743 86.041957 213.996267 469.235789 979.864041
2025-03-16 1.574948 7.703737 26.801266 79.687640 204.915878 460.885089 983.175581
2025-03-23 1.429722 7.406830 26.730960 81.658894 214.281424 489.389934 1057.428579